UNL Showdown: Italy and France Battle for Group Supremacy

Although the stakes are significantly lower, a clash between Italy and France represents a repeat of the 2006 World Cup final. Both these sides are already through to the quarter-final stage, but it’s Italy who currently have the advantage as far as topping the group goes after a 3-1 win in the reverse fixture, meaning they will claim top spot if they avoid losing to France by two goals or more.

Recent form suggests that should be fairly straightforward for Italy, but that’s certainly not the case based solely on the last five H2H meetings on Italian soil (D2, L3). But a 1-0 away win against Belgium on Thursday should inspire some belief that they can end that poor H2H run, while an unbeaten record in UEFA Nations League (UNL) home action (W4, D6) would suggest they’ve got what it takes to claim top spot in their group for the third UNL campaign running.

France will hope they have enough to ensure that’s not the case, but on the evidence of their 0-0 draw against Israel on Thursday, they’ll likely come up short. French publication L’Equipe described that clash as “dull” but manager Didier Deschamps won’t care what the media write if his side can somehow claim top spot, a task made harder by the continued injury of Kylian Mbappé.

All hope is not lost though, as despite their lacklustre showing against Israel, France have actually won both of their away games in this UNL cycle. It’s worth noting though that only one of France’s historical UNL away wins came by a margin big enough to ensure they’d top the group here, and given none of their last five such games saw them keep a clean sheet, they’ll likely have to do it the hard way.

Players to watch: Sandro Tonali scored his first-ever international goal against Belgium and he has assisted Italy’s opening goal twice in this UNL campaign. Bradley Barcola netted after 13 seconds in the reverse H2H – the fastest goal in UNL history – and he’s got a point to prove after L’Equipe claimed he delivered a “display of rare poverty” against Israel.

Hot stat: Before Thursday’s 1-0 win against Belgium, Italy’s last six UNL games had seen both teams net.